Hurricane Prediction

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  #1  
Old 06-01-08, 06:31 AM
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Hurricane Prediction

June 1, 2008; the start of another Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Since lately the hurricane season predictions have seemed to be no better than a coin toss, The-Tow-Guy has decided to weigh in on the matter. So here goes; and BTW no coins were involved in these predictions.

The Tow Guy predicts that the season will see 14 named storms of which 8 will reach hurricane strength and 3 will make landfall on the U.S. coast at hurricane force. They will be one each of categories 3, 2, & 1.

Unlike the professional prognosticators, I will not be adjusting my predictions monthly as the season wears on. These are my predictions and I'm sticking to them.

 
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Old 06-01-08, 08:00 AM
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Does that mean Petro will rise .35 for each landfall?

PS: GO RED WINGS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
  #3  
Old 06-01-08, 08:27 AM
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TowGuy - My guess is that your guess is as good as anybody else's. Ever since the hurricane guy at NOAA (I can't remember his name, but he was pretty good) retired their prediction accuracy has gone to he**.

We have a local weathermen that gives daily temp predictions in his forecast. If he's correct he blows his own horn about it the following day. He brags about his accuracy. Problem is, that he uses +/- 5* as his accuracy limit (within 10* for the math challenged). I could probably throw a dart at a paper full of numbers and get the same accuracy.
 
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Old 06-01-08, 10:23 AM
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Hurricane Prediction

After Katrina, Rita and Wilma, I worked for the goverment - SBA (NOT FEMA), that administers the low interest loans for rebuilding. About 5 months of 60-70 hours weeks.

I have been contacted regarding availabilty and have my credit card and realy to go wherever. I am given 48 hours to be wherever they send me.

Someone apparently thinks there may be another disaster, but hopefully not like Katrina and the inept infrastructure and local administration problems that followed.
 
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Old 06-01-08, 10:30 AM
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I read an article in the paper this morning that said any hurricanes that distrupt oil shipments or refining [and most of our refineries are on the gulf coast] will send gas to $5-$6 a gallon
 
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Old 06-01-08, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by cwbuff View Post
Ever since the hurricane guy at NOAA (I can't remember his name, but he was pretty good) retired their prediction accuracy has gone to he**.

Neil Frank or Bob Sheets is probably who you're thining of.
 
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Old 06-01-08, 01:46 PM
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Hurricane Prediction

marksr -

According to the plant/construction/maintenance people I talked to in Louisiana and Mississipi (mostly MS), the person really responsible for the East coast not running out of gas (big price increases) was Dick Cheny - He did not shoot anyone either! He cut the buracracy/red tape and got the refineries and shipping opened up to prevent a shortage. He did not have to answer for his reason for getting things done.

FEMA was totally under staffed (very few regular employees) that subcontracts things as quickly as possible and will always be the brunt of criticism for disaster and too much overhead when there is no disaster.
 
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Old 06-01-08, 02:03 PM
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I felt badly for all those people in Louisiana and Mississippi who got hit by Katrina, and those hit by other storms. BUT, you have to draw a line somewhere. Your house is below sea level, behind an earthen levee, and a hurricane is predicted to pass right over you....what do you mean, "you're riding it out?" C'mon folks my degree is in something besides rocket science, but I don't think I'd be staying around. I was in college in South Mississippi during Camille. What devastation! One example is all you have to show me.
IMO, if there had been total evacuation of the area, FEMA and the other agencies could have done a better job, although understaffed, as Dick said. Hanger's on only complicated matters, and made it difficult to "administer" help. Sure the government is here to help....you'd better run, as it can only get worse.
TG, mine is: more than one named hurricane, more than one land falling, at least a cat 1, and more than one fatality. Beat that.
 
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Old 06-01-08, 03:17 PM
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inept infrastructure and local administration problems that followed.

The feds took a lot of crap (and still are) for the Katrina disaster but you hit the nail on the head. If you really want to look for the incompetence then you need look no further than the Mayor. Then of course, you have to put some of the blame on the jerks shooting at the people trying to rescue stranded victims and you also have to blame the victims themselves. I have never seen so many peole absolutely incapable of fending for themselves.

If you lived 10 feet below sea level, behind a 50 year old dyke and a major hurricane was headed your way would you just hang out waiting for somebody to tell you what to do?
 
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Old 06-01-08, 09:16 PM
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I know you've seen it, but this is why Texas didn't have looting problems;

<a href="http://s76.photobucket.com/albums/j3/larrychandler/?action=view&current=katrina067.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i76.photobucket.com/albums/j3/larrychandler/katrina067.jpg" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>
 
  #11  
Old 06-02-08, 04:20 AM
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Originally Posted by chandler View Post
TG, mine is: more than one named hurricane, more than one land falling, at least a cat 1, and more than one fatality. Beat that.

Hmmm, let's see who was closer at the end of the season.

BTW I haven't paid attention to the profe$$sional guessers so I have no idea if my predictions are in the same range as theirs.
 
  #12  
Old 06-02-08, 06:56 AM
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FWIW - The NHC has predicted 13 named storms, 7 of which will reach hurricane strength. Three of those will be major storms.

The NHC site has a couple pages touting their forecast accuracy, but it seems to concentrate on their tracking ability once a storm has formed. Much of that is buried in statistical mumbo-jumbo.

I did not find a record of the accuracy of their seasonal predictions.
 
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