Day to day long range weather forecat

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  #1  
Old 06-12-17, 03:58 AM
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Day to day long range weather forecat

Does anybody know of a web site that can show me probable weather for up to year in advance? And for specific locations, not just a general area. I'm looking for specific dates. For instance if you're planning a wedding, or a major family get together, or vacation in an outdoor facility that requires advance reservations.

I believe it would be partially based on what the weather was like on that particular day over the past several years. I know it won't be 100%, but what is likely to be. Years ago I found one site but I can't seem to find it now. Can't remember the name.

I did a brief GOOGLE search but none seem to key in on specific dates for a specific area.
 
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Old 06-12-17, 04:26 AM
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IMO you'd have better luck shooting dice. While it shouldn't be difficult to find out what the weather is generally like in a specific place and certain times of the year, I couldn't see relying on any forecast more specific than that. Shoot, our local weatherman has trouble with the weekly forecast!
 
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Old 06-12-17, 04:39 AM
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The closest thing I know of would be the "Old Farmers Almanac". You can buy it in print & buy an internet version.

Granted, they are put out in yearly editions like for 2017. That wont help you for June 2018 but, again, its the closest thing I know of for long range forecasts.
 
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Old 06-12-17, 04:41 AM
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True, but I have noticed that generally speaking weather tends to repeat itself day to day over the years. I think that is how the percent chance of rain is calculated. How often has it rained at this location over the past ten years? 8 times, 80%. That and of course current weather conditions prevailing. Not expecting any accuracy. But if I have to choose a date for an event in the 90 to 180 day range, I think a forecast, regardless of how sketchy it might be is better than nothing a all. What have I got to loose vs a small chance of choosing a good day?


Dixie
Farmers Almanac my be my only choice. But, I was hoping to find the one site I had years ago? sigh...
 
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Old 06-12-17, 04:45 AM
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Specific dates a year in advance! Are you serious??? A forecast 7 days out is only about 50% accurate at best. The best you're going to find are monthly averages.
 
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Old 06-12-17, 05:08 AM
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If you were look at a history over a 10, 15, 20 year range at specific days throughout the year you will find that most of those days are similar in terms of weather. That's better than a 50-50 chance. Again I'm not looking for 75 degrees with clear skies and no wind. I want the likelihood of a warm, calm day vs rain being better than 50%. That's better than no forecast at all. I know its out there but I jut can't find it.
 
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Old 06-12-17, 06:36 AM
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Morning Norm

The percentage chance of rain is based on the viewing area not past history. Viewing area is the area that shows up on weather maps when you look in your area or more easily, the map that your local TV station shows. 80% chance of rain means that 80% of the viewing area would experience rain on that upcoming day. If your viewing area is from Erie PA to Niagara Falls and West to say Warsaw, 80% of that area will experience rain. 100% chance means everyone will get wet. 30% chance means maybe Tonawanda gets wet but Dunkirk and Orchard Park do not. The next viewing area would be picked up at Rochester and go from Warsaw east and be carried by the Rochester TV stations.

I usually use NOAA Marine forecasts if I want specifics for the upcoming week. They break things down into much more detail than any other forecast I have ever read. Here is a link, choose the Buffalo Reporting Station - LINKS to NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECAST OFFICES


(sorry for all the Western New York Specific towns/cities for those around the country)
 
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Old 06-12-17, 06:40 AM
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I have looked back to the previous year a few times, like when it feels unseasonably hot or when we've had what seems like an exceptional snowfall, and have found history at Weather Underground, timeanddate.com, and the National Weather Service. We also have a local website with such information. I don't remember looking at an entire month, but am pretty sure at least one or two of them had tabs with that option.
 
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Old 06-12-17, 07:16 PM
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Czizzi,

Thanks for the weather forecasting education. I did not know that is how it was done. Many moons ago somebody told me it was past history. I made sense to me at the time.

I looked at the NOAA but had trouble finding a history or a forecast 90 to 180 days in advance.
 
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